SuperworthMicron Technology, Inc. MU
- Market cap
- $1.2T
- PE
- 14.7×
- 10y median 17.4×
- Forward PE
- Price to sales
- 9.2×
- EV/EBIT
- 20.4×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $133.2B
- +256% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 63.8%
- Free cash flow yield
- 4.3%
Priced as if this memory boom ends like the others
Record profits at 6 times the next twelve months' earnings, and contracts that say this time is different
A low PE, and memory's low PEs have been warnings
Micron trades at 14.1 times the last twelve months of earnings, higher than 44% of the last ten years (median 17.2) and far below its peers' 49.9. That trailing figure looks back a year while profits climb fast, so it overstates the multiple. In December 2018 the PE hit 2.5 near that cycle's earnings peak. Profits then fell by more than half. For memory makers, a low PE often means the market expects a downturn.
Quarterly revenue is more than eleven times its 2023 level
Quarterly revenue went from 4.7 billion dollars in late 2023 to 54.2 billion in the quarter to August, against 11.3 billion a year earlier. The last quarter rose 31%. AI accelerators need far more memory per chip, and high bandwidth memory (HBM) has been sold out. The open question is how much is HBM on long contracts and how much is DRAM and NAND sold at spot prices, the day-to-day market rate.
A shortage lets the seller set the price
Net margin went from minus 42.5% in late 2023 to 63.8% over the last twelve months. Operating margin is 75.0% and gross margin 80.7%, both the highest in ten years, against medians of 22.6% and 37.1%. Free cash flow was 52.9 billion over the last twelve months, against 1.7 billion a year earlier. Memory chips are close to interchangeable, so these margins come from scarce supply more than any moat.
Twice before, peak earnings fell by three quarters or more
Twelve month EPS was 11.52 dollars at the end of fiscal 2018 and 2.37 two years later. It was 7.73 at the end of fiscal 2022 and a loss of 6.28 by late 2023. Each time, new supply arrived and prices fell. Today's 74.21 is about six times the 2018 figure. The fear is the same fall from a much higher peak.
On sales, it is near its most expensive in ten years
Micron trades at 8.9 times sales, higher than 93% of the last ten years (median 2.8). The bull case is multi-year take-or-pay contracts, where buyers pay for the agreed volume even if they don't take it, and consensus of 61.5 billion in revenue next quarter from 20 analysts. The bear case is new fabs (chip factories), including Micron's own: 27.4 billion of net capex in fiscal 2026 and a 250 billion U.S. plan.
Consensus sees earnings climb, then level off
Quarterly EPS went from a loss of 1.12 in late 2023 to 32.87 in the quarter to August (33.42 adjusted). Adjusted consensus has 38.11 for the November quarter, rising to about 49 by late 2027 and about 54 by late 2028, a slower climb. Only 8 or 9 analysts publish for mid 2027, so the ranges widen. The flattening is the cycle question in numbers.
At 6 times forward earnings, the price doubts the plateau
At today's price, consensus earnings put Micron at 6.0 times the next twelve months, against a peer median of 33.2 and its own ten year median of 9.5. Points before September 22 use later estimates, so they read low. On September 30 it reported 54.2 billion in revenue and guided to 61.5 billion and 38.15 EPS, in line with consensus. Watch December 23 for 2027 contract pricing.
What has happened lately
- Micron (SEC filing), Micron reports record fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $54.2 billion and guides Q1 to $61.5 billionNon-GAAP EPS $33.42 at an 87% gross margin; Q1 FY27 guide of $61.5B plus or minus $1.5B and $38.15 EPS, after FY26 net capex of $27.4B.
- Micron (SEC filing), Micron names Manish Bhatia and Scott DeBoer presidents in a leadership reshufflePuts operations, capital spending and the technology roadmap under two new presidents; chief business officer Sumit Sadana becomes an adviser.
- Micron, Micron unveils Micron Research Labs, a planned $10B research hub in BoiseA $10B spending commitment over ten years, on top of the $250B U.S. manufacturing and R&D plan, adds to future capex and R&D costs.
Headlines link to the original source.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4.7B | $5.8B | $6.8B | $7.8B | $8.7B+84% | $8.1B+38% | $9.3B+37% | $11.3B+46% | $13.6B+57% | $23.9B+196% | $41.5B+346% | $54.2B+379% | |
| Cost of revenue | $4.8B | $4.7B | $5B | $5B | $5.4B+13% | $5.1B+7% | $5.8B+16% | $6.3B+25% | $6B+12% | $6.1B+20% | $6.4B+11% | $7.2B+15% |
| Gross profit | −$35M | $1.1B | $1.8B | $2.7B | $3.3B | $3B+175% | $3.5B+92% | $5.1B+85% | $7.6B+128% | $17.8B+499% | $35.1B+899% | $47B+831% |
| R&D | $845M | $832M | $850M | $903M | $888M+5% | $898M+8% | $965M+14% | $1B+16% | $1.2B+32% | $1.3B+39% | $1.3B+36% | $1.9B+83% |
| SG&A | $263M | $280M | $291M | $295M | $288M+10% | $285M+2% | $318M+9% | $314M+6% | $337M+17% | $344M+21% | $407M+28% | $859M+174% |
| −$1.1B | $191M | $719M | $1.5B | $2.2B | $1.8B+828% | $2.2B+202% | $3.7B+140% | $6.1B+182% | $16.1B+810% | $33.3B+1436% | $44.3B+1113% | |
| Interest expense | $132M | $144M | $150M | $136M | $118M−11% | $112M−22% | $123M−18% | $124M−9% | $74M−37% | $32M−71% | $0 | $0 |
| Pre-tax income | −$1.2B | $170M | $715M | $1.5B | $2.2B | $1.8B+934% | $2.1B+196% | $3.6B+141% | $6.1B+182% | $16.2B+819% | $33.2B+1472% | $44.3B+1120% |
| $73M | −$622M | $377M | $623M | $283M+288% | $177M | $235M−38% | $429M−31% | $829M+193% | $2.4B+1240% | $5B+2018% | $6.6B+1435% | |
| Net income | −$1.2B | $793M | $332M | $887M | $1.9B | $1.6B+100% | $1.9B+468% | $3.2B+261% | $5.2B+180% | $13.8B+771% | $28.2B+1398% | $37.7B+1078% |
| −$1.12 | $0.71 | $0.30 | $0.79 | $1.67 | $1.41+99% | $1.68+460% | $2.83+258% | $4.60+175% | $12.07+756% | $24.67+1369% | $32.87+1062% | |
| 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 1.1B+2% | 1.1B+1% | 1.1B+0% | 1.1B+0% | 1.1B+1% | 1.1B+2% | 1.1B+2% | 1.1B+2% |
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings. Fiscal years are four fiscal quarters added up; balance sheet lines are as of the period's end. Growth is on the same period a year earlier.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
Analyst consensus for the next eight quarters, with the range from the lowest to the highest estimate, is part of Superworth Pro.
Peers
Companies in Semiconductors within ten times Micron Technology's size, closest in size first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.2T | 14.7× | 17.4× | 9.2× | +256% | 63.8% | |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $1.1T | 166× | 109× | 25.5× | +40% | 15.6% | |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.8T | 48.1× | 44.4× | 20.2× | +49% | 42.9% | |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $413.2B | 44.9× | 19.7× | 13.4× | +8% | 30.1% | |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $412.3B | 57.2× | 21.0× | 17.7× | +26% | 31.3% | |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $263.9B | 44.0× | 24.1× | 13.6× | +17% | 31.1% | |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.7T | 30.0× | 53.9× | 18.9× | +83% | 63.7% | |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $257.2B | 53.7× | 23.8× | 18.9× | +12% | 35.6% | |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | $249.6B | 94.0× | 31.6× | 26.4× | +31% | 27.9% | |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $198.7B | 48.6× | 39.1× | 14.3× | +34% | 29.8% | |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $186B | 20.2× | 20.2× | 4.2× | +2% | 21.0% | |
| Peer median | $338.1B | 48.4× | 27.8× | 18.3× | +28% | 30.6% |
About
- Chief executive
- Sanjay Mehrotra, since 2017Co-founded SanDisk, not Micron. Micron CEO since 2017. Source
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Sector
- Technology
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .