SuperworthTesla, Inc. TSLA
- Market cap
- $1.5T
- PE
- 350×
- 10y median 177×
- Forward PE
- Price to sales
- 14.4×
- EV/EBIT
- 306×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $103.6B
- +12% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 3.7%
- Free cash flow yield
- 0.4%
A multiple that stopped being about earnings
Profits fell by two thirds and the stock went up
Revenue sat flat for three years, then turned
Revenue over the last twelve months barely moved for two and a half years. In the year to June it grew 11.8% to 103.6 billion dollars, the fastest since 2023. Third quarter deliveries then came in about 2% below a year earlier, so the turn is not proven yet.
Earnings fell by two thirds
Reported earnings per share fell from 3.11 to 1.08 dollars. That is a real drop, not slower growth. Sales held steady, so thinner margins did it. The taller bars from late 2023 to late 2024 include a one-off tax gain. Tesla's adjusted figure, which leaves out stock pay and other items, is 1.74.
Sales came back, profit did not
Net margin peaked at 15.5% in January 2024, lifted by that tax gain. In the June quarter sales hit a record, yet the operating margin was 1.4%. Tesla points to spending on AI and research, stock pay and lower selling prices. A US safety probe of 1.2 million cars could add warranty costs.
And yet the market value rose
From about 1.0 trillion dollars three years ago to about 1.5 trillion now, after a peak of 1.93 trillion in December 2025. The stock and the earnings went in opposite directions for three years.
Which puts the PE near 350
PE is the share price divided by the last twelve months of reported earnings per share. Its three year median is 162, and its low was 33 in April 2024. The median of its four industry peers is about 21. This price is not about today's profits. It pays for robotaxis, batteries and robots.
The hope has cash behind it
Free cash flow over the last twelve months is 5.76 billion dollars, more than triple two years ago. Tesla also deployed 13.7 gigawatt hours of battery storage for homes and power grids in the third quarter. The catch is spending. Capital spending more than doubled from a year earlier in the June quarter, and that quarter alone used 1.1 billion dollars of cash.
Next year's profits don't explain the price either
Even on analysts' adjusted forecasts for the next twelve months, the stock costs about 173 times earnings. Third quarter results on October 21 are the first test, with 45 cents a share expected. The bigger test is a federal audit of how Tesla certified the Cybercab, its robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals. That audit, more than any quarter, is what this price is waiting on.
What has happened lately
- Tesla (SEC filing), Tesla delivers 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026 and deploys 13.7 GWh of energy storageDeliveries ran about 2% below the 497,099 of a year earlier, against production of 464,391; this sets the revenue base for Q3 results due October 21.
- NHTSA, NHTSA opens audit of Tesla's self-certification of the Cybercab to federal safety standardsRegulators are examining the basis on which Tesla certified a vehicle with no steering wheel, pedals or mirrors, a gating step for the robotaxi rollout.
- NHTSA, NHTSA opens investigation into suspension link detachment on 1.2 million Tesla vehiclesThe probe covers an estimated 1,198,300 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles after 156 complaints; a recall at that scale would be a material warranty cost.
- SEC, Tesla Q2 2026 results: revenue up 26% to $28.2B, GAAP operating income $0.4BRecord 480,126 deliveries lifted revenue 26%, but operating income fell to $0.4B and free cash flow was negative $1.1B on sharply higher capex.
Headlines link to the original source.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q4 FY23 | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25.2B | $21.3B | $25.5B | $25.2B | $25.7B+2% | $19.3B−9% | $22.5B−12% | $28.1B+12% | $24.9B−3% | $22.4B+16% | $28.2B+26% | |
| Cost of revenue | $20.7B | $17.6B | $20.9B | $20.2B | $21.5B+4% | $16.2B−8% | $18.6B−11% | $23B+14% | $19.9B−8% | $17.7B+9% | $23.5B+26% |
| Gross profit | $4.4B | $3.7B | $4.6B | $5B | $4.2B−6% | $3.2B−15% | $3.9B−15% | $5.1B+1% | $5B+20% | $4.7B+50% | $4.8B+23% |
| R&D | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1B | $1.3B+17% | $1.4B+22% | $1.6B+48% | $1.6B+57% | $1.8B+40% | $1.9B+38% | $2.4B+49% |
| SG&A | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.3B+3% | $1.3B−9% | $1.4B+7% | $1.6B+32% | $1.7B+26% | $1.8B+47% | $2B+45% |
| $2.1B | $1.2B | $1.6B | $2.7B | $1.6B−23% | $399M−66% | $923M−43% | $1.6B−40% | $1.4B−11% | $941M+136% | $398M−57% | |
| Interest expense | $61M | $76M | $86M | $92M | $96M+57% | $91M+20% | $86M+0% | $76M−17% | $85M−12% | $92M+1% | $81M−6% |
| Pre-tax income | $2.2B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $2.8B | $2.5B+15% | $589M−69% | $1.5B−13% | $2B−30% | $1.2B−53% | $748M+27% | $1.3B−14% |
| −$5.8B | $483M | $371M | $602M | $381M | $169M−65% | $359M−3% | $570M−5% | $325M−15% | $257M+52% | $201M−44% | |
| Net income | $7.9B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $2.2B | $2.1B−73% | $409M−71% | $1.2B−16% | $1.4B−37% | $840M−61% | $477M+17% | $1.1B−5% |
| $2.27 | $0.41 | $0.40 | $0.62 | $0.66−71% | $0.12−71% | $0.33−18% | $0.39−37% | $0.24−64% | $0.13+8% | $0.32−3% | |
| 3.5B | 3.5B | 3.5B | 3.5B | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% | 3.5B+1% |
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings. Fiscal years are four fiscal quarters added up; balance sheet lines are as of the period's end. Growth is on the same period a year earlier.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
Analyst consensus for the next eight quarters, with the range from the lowest to the highest estimate, is part of Superworth Pro.
Peers
Companies in Consumer Cyclical within ten times Tesla's size, closest in size first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLATesla, Inc. | $1.5T | 350× | 177× | 14.4× | +12% | 3.7% | |
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | $2.8T | 20.9× | 79.5× | 3.6× | +16% | 17.4% | |
| HDThe Home Depot, Inc. | $285.1B | 20.0× | 23.2× | 1.7× | +2% | 8.4% | |
| TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc. | $152.7B | 25.7× | 25.8× | 2.4× | +8% | 9.7% | |
| Peer median | $285.1B | 20.9× | 25.8× | 2.4× | +8% | 9.7% |
About
- Chief executive
- Elon Musk, since 2008FounderLegally recognised co-founder since a 2009 settlement, CEO since 2008. Source
- Industry
- Auto - Manufacturers
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .