SuperworthExxon Mobil Corporation XOM
- Market cap
- $674.6B
- PE
- 21.1×
- 10y median 16.3×
- Forward PE
- Price to sales
- 1.9×
- EV/EBIT
- 15.8×
- Revenue, 12 months
- $361.1B
- +10% on a year ago
- Net margin
- 9.1%
- Free cash flow yield
- 4.5%
Priced for a war premium that analysts expect to fade
Expensive on last year's earnings, cheap on next year's, and the gap is the oil price
Up 47 percent in a year
The stock went from 111.29 a year ago to 164.01, after a low of 110.64 in October 2025 and a high of 171.47 on March 30, 2026. War in the Middle East shut Gulf production this spring and lifted oil prices, and Exxon's shares moved with them.
On past earnings, it looks expensive
The PE is 21.1, higher than 75% of the last ten years. The ten-year median is 16.3 and the median of ten integrated oil peers is 15.9. The PE was lowest at 6.8 in July 2023, when earnings were near their peak. For an oil company a low PE often marks the top of the cycle, not a bargain.
One quarter of war prices doubled the earnings
Revenue sat near 80 to 90 billion a quarter for two years, 83.16 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter jumped 38% to 114.53 billion and GAAP EPS to 3.48, from 1.00. Record Permian output helped, but a jump that size is mostly the oil price. Consensus sees revenue easing back to about 93 billion a quarter by mid 2028.
The trailing PE sits on a trough
TTM GAAP EPS fell from a peak of 14.76 in March 2023 to 5.93 in March 2026, the quarter the Mideast conflict shut part of Exxon's Gulf output. One strong quarter lifted it to 7.77, but three weaker ones are still in that number, which is why the trailing PE looks high. Earnings swing with oil, from a loss of 5.25 a share at the end of 2020 to that 2023 peak.
What the price assumes
Consensus puts adjusted EPS at 12.89 for the next twelve months, against 8.27 over the last four quarters. At today's price that is 12.7 times, below the three-year median of 14.2 (rebuilt with hindsight before late September 2026). Then it fades: the three quarters to mid 2028 sum to 7.71, about 10.3 a year at that pace, or near 16 times today's price, back around the ten-year PE median of 16.3.
Cash is the bull case, oil is the risk
TTM free cash flow is 30.55 billion, up from 18.79 billion in March 2026 but about half the 59.59 billion peak in late 2022. That is a 4.53% yield on today's price, below the five-year median of 7.19%. Bulls point to Guyana's fifth vessel, due in late 2026, and cash near 30 billion a year. Bears point to oil falling back once Hormuz reopens. Third quarter results come October 30, with consensus EPS of 3.76.
What has happened lately
- Bloomberg, ExxonMobil to pump oil and gas from Azerbaijan's Middle Kura Basin in new dealA joint venture with Socar to explore unconventional resources, with Exxon as operator pending approval by Azerbaijan's legislature. A long-dated addition to the resource base outside the Gulf.
- ExxonMobil, ExxonMobil announces second-quarter 2026 resultsEarnings of $14.5B, or $3.48 a share, on record Permian output. $9.4B returned to shareholders, and the fifth Guyana vessel set sail for a 4Q26 startup.
- Bloomberg, Exxon says Mideast conflict cut 6% of its global output in the first quarterDamage to Qatar LNG trains and the Strait of Hormuz closure hit operations in Qatar and the UAE, a region that normally supplies about a fifth of Exxon's output.
Headlines link to the original source.
Charts
Financials
| Income statement | Q4 FY23 | Q1 FY24 | Q2 FY24 | Q3 FY24 | Q4 FY24 | Q1 FY25 | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25 | Q4 FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81.7B | $80.4B | $90B | $87.8B | $81.1B−1% | $81.1B+1% | $79.5B−12% | $83.3B−5% | $80B−1% | $83.2B+3% | $114.5B+44% | |
| Cost of revenue | $64B | $61.5B | $69.8B | $67.4B | $63.8B−0% | $62.6B+2% | $61.5B−12% | $64.6B−4% | $64.9B+2% | $51.8B−17% | $88.9B+45% |
| Gross profit | $17.7B | $18.9B | $20.2B | $20.4B | $17.2B−3% | $18.5B−2% | $17.9B−11% | $18.7B−8% | $15.1B−12% | $31.4B+70% | $25.6B+43% |
| R&D | $879M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| SG&A | $2.6B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.3B | $2.6B+1% | $2.5B+2% | $2.5B−2% | $3B+32% | $3B+16% | $2.7B+6% | $2.5B−2% |
| $8.5B | $9.9B | $10.9B | $11B | $7.8B−8% | $9.8B−1% | $8.9B−18% | $9.2B−17% | $6B−23% | $5.3B−46% | $18.2B+104% | |
| Interest expense | $272M | $221M | $271M | $207M | $297M+9% | $205M−7% | $271M+0% | $207M+0% | −$80M | $295M+44% | $227M−16% |
| Pre-tax income | $10.6B | $12.4B | $13.7B | $13B | $9.8B−8% | $11.6B−6% | $10.7B−22% | $10.9B−16% | $8B−18% | $7B−40% | $19.4B+81% |
| $2.6B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.1B | $1.9B−29% | $3.6B−6% | $3.4B−18% | $3.2B−22% | $1.4B−24% | $2.5B−30% | $4.5B+36% | |
| Net income | $7.6B | $8.2B | $9.2B | $8.6B | $7.6B−0% | $7.7B−6% | $7.1B−23% | $7.5B−12% | $6.5B−15% | $4.2B−46% | $14.5B+105% |
| $1.91 | $2.06 | $2.14 | $1.92 | $1.72−10% | $1.76−15% | $1.64−23% | $1.76−8% | $1.53−11% | $1.00−43% | $3.48+112% | |
| 4B | 4B | 4.3B | 4.5B | 4.5B+11% | 4.5B+12% | 4.3B+0% | 4.3B−3% | 4.2B−5% | 4.2B−6% | 4.2B−4% |
From each company's 10-Q and 10-K filings. Fiscal years are four fiscal quarters added up; balance sheet lines are as of the period's end. Growth is on the same period a year earlier.
Estimates
Next earnings report: .
Analyst consensus for the next eight quarters, with the range from the lowest to the highest estimate, is part of Superworth Pro.
Peers
Companies in Energy within ten times Exxon Mobil's size, closest in size first.
| Company | Market cap | PE | Its 10y median PE | Fwd PE | P/S | Revenue growth | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $674.6B | 21.1× | 16.3× | 1.9× | +10% | 9.1% | |
| CVXChevron Corporation | $405.3B | 19.7× | 17.2× | 1.9× | +11% | 9.9% | |
| COPConocoPhillips | $156B | 17.2× | 12.5× | 2.5× | +10% | 14.7% | |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $124.2B | 15.2× | 10.4× | 0.8× | +15% | 5.6% | |
| VLOValero Energy Corporation | $122.1B | 17.6× | 13.0× | 0.9× | +13% | 5.2% | |
| PSXPhillips 66 | $108.4B | 15.5× | 11.7× | 0.7× | +14% | 4.7% | |
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $87.4B | 28.5× | 28.1× | 7.2× | +9% | 25.2% | |
| EPDEnterprise Products Partners L.P. | $79.7B | 12.8× | 12.4× | 1.4× | +7% | 10.8% | |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $75.6B | 11.2× | 12.3× | 2.8× | +19% | 25.4% | |
| ETEnergy Transfer LP | $71.3B | 12.9× | 13.1× | 0.7× | +33% | 4.9% | |
| SLBSlb N.V. | $71.2B | 23.4× | 21.6× | 2.0× | +3% | 8.5% | |
| Peer median | $97.9B | 16.3× | 12.8× | 1.7× | +12% | 9.2% |
About
- Chief executive
- Darren Woods, since 2017Joined 1992, CEO since 2017. Source
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- Sector
- Energy
Valuation data, not investment advice. Prices as of .